WHEN EVEN THE RIVERS THAT BUILT CIVILISATIONS BEGIN TO FAIL

Imagine standing on the banks of the Euphrates in southern Iraq.

For thousands of years, its waters helped sustain settlements, irrigate fields and feed the people of the Fertile Crescent. Farmers planted wheat, tended orchards and raised livestock along a river system that helped make large-scale agriculture possible.

Now imagine a farmer standing beside an irrigation canal that no longer carries enough water to reach his fields. The ground is dry. The wells are saline. Planting decisions are dictated not only by the season but by how much water authorities can release.

This is not a hypothetical future.

In December 2025, Reuters reported that Iraq’s Tigris and Euphrates had reached record-low levels during a severe drought. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that the country’s wheat harvest could fall by 30–50% that season. Iraq’s water reserves had fallen from approximately 60 billion cubic metres in 2020 to less than 4 billion cubic metres in 2025, according to the officials quoted in the report. Reuters, December 16, 2025.

The consequences extend beyond grain.

 Earlier in 2025, Reuters documented the collapse of buffalo herds in Iraq’s southern marshlands, where water shortages had diminished grazing areas and threatened the livelihoods of farming families.

 The country’s buffalo population had fallen from about 150,000 in 2015 to fewer than 65,000, according to local marshland experts. Reuters, April 30, 2025.

The Euphrates is not alone in this story.

Across the world, the rivers, aquifers and snow-fed water systems on which agriculture depends are under pressure from combinations of drought, rising temperatures, excessive extraction, changing rainfall and competing demands for water.

The Colorado River in the United States has experienced a long-term decline in flow. A peer-reviewed study published in the Journal of Climate estimated that upper Colorado River Basin streamflow declined by roughly 20% over the preceding century, with human-caused warming accounting for a substantial part of the reduction. The consequences have included difficult choices about irrigation allocations, agricultural production and water consumption across the American Southwest.

The Amazon and La Plata basins in South America have experienced recurring below-normal river discharge in recent years. In Europe, droughts have affected major river systems, including the Rhine and the Po, disrupting navigation, industry and agricultural activity.

 In Asia, the Indus and other major river systems face growing pressure from irrigation demand, groundwater extraction, glacier changes and highly variable precipitation.

Africa faces its own complex picture.

 The Nile, Congo and Zambezi basins experienced much-below-normal discharge in 2025, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s State of Global Water Resources 2025, published in September 2026. The same report identified recurring below-normal river discharge across parts of Central and East Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and North America over the five years from 2021 to 2025.

El Niño 2026–2027: On 3 September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization said the event was expected to intensify to very strong levels, with a near-100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027.

Its October outlook projected a peak in the Pacific around December. This raises the urgency of preparedness, but it does not mean every country will experience drought; regional rainfall forecasts differ.

World Meteorological Organization

These rivers are not all drying for the same reasons, nor are their flows declining uniformly. But the broader message is difficult to ignore: the world’s freshwater systems are becoming increasingly variable, and the reliability of water supplies can no longer be taken for granted.

Source: World Meteorological Organization, State of Global Water Resources 2025.

For agriculture, this creates a fundamental vulnerability. A farmer may have fertile land, suitable seeds, workers and a market waiting for the harvest, yet still be unable to produce enough food because the water needed to grow it is unavailable, too expensive or delivered at the wrong time.

The question facing investors is no longer simply how much food the world can grow.

It is how reliably the world can supply the water required to grow it.

WATER INSECURITY-A GLOBAL PROBLEM

A river does not have to disappear completely to threaten a nation’s food supply.

 It only has to fall far enough that farmers cannot irrigate, factories cannot process, hospitals cannot maintain essential services and households can no longer depend on the tap.

As expressed above-across the world, water systems are under pressure from combinations of drought, changing rainfall patterns, growing demand, ageing infrastructure, pollution and competing uses. 

The consequences reach well beyond the environment.

 They affect food prices, public health, industrial production, tourism and national economic resilience.

Each environment has unique circumstances that are not identical, and not every low river flow is attributable to climate change alone.

 But the broader lesson is clear: freshwater supplies that once seemed dependable can no longer be treated as invulnerable.

For investors, this changes the conversation.

 Water infrastructure is not simply a public utility expense. 

Properly designed and responsibly operated, it can become an essential service supporting food production, healthcare, tourism, housing and manufacturing.

The question is no longer only where water can be found. It is how communities can secure reliable supplies when conventional sources fail.

WHY NOW?

The risk is especially consequential for economies that depend on rain-fed agriculture, vulnerable freshwater sources and imported food.

During the 2023–2024 El Niño-related drought in Southern Africa, poor rainfall damaged harvests and increased food insecurity. 

Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi were among the countries affected. The crisis demonstrated how simultaneous agricultural losses can place pressure on regional food supplies and household purchasing power.

El Niño does not produce drought everywhere. Its effects vary by region, season and prevailing weather conditions.

 Nevertheless, climate variability, population growth, urban expansion and growing industrial demand make it prudent to plan for more frequent periods of water stress.

For African countries seeking to expand agro-processing, this is a strategic concern.

 A fruit-pulp factory cannot operate without dependable water. 

Neither can a beverage plant, dairy, food-processing facility or modern irrigation system. Even where crops can survive seasonal rainfall variation, processing and cleaning operations require water that meets appropriate quality standards.

Water insecurity can therefore undermine investments in agriculture after the crop has been grown. It can also threaten the hospitals expected to care for the people affected by climate-related emergencies.

That is why the investment case for water security should extend beyond dams and conventional water networks to include desalination, wastewater reuse, rainwater harvesting, groundwater treatment, storage and renewable-powered pumping.

The right combination will depend on the location.

THE PUBLIC-HEALTH EMERGENCY: WHEN HOSPITALS CANNOT DEPEND ON WATER

A water shortage at home is distressing.

 A water shortage in a hospital can compromise the delivery of healthcare itself.

Hospitals need safe water for hand hygiene, environmental cleaning, sanitation, sterilisation processes, laundry, kitchens and numerous clinical activities. Interruptions can delay procedures, increase operational costs and place patients and staff at risk.

Jamaica provides a particularly important case study because its hospital water difficulties are not merely a hypothetical future climate risk.

Kingston Public Hospital-Jamaica :

In July 2019, The Jamaica Gleaner reported that water shortages were disrupting operations at Kingston Public Hospital (KPH), one of the country’s major referral facilities.

The newspaper reported that surgeries had been delayed or cancelled because water delivered by truck did not always arrive early enough for medical teams to begin operating on schedule. Doctors explained that instruments could not be cleaned as required, and patients were sometimes cancelled after arriving for their procedures.

The report described the shortages as perennial, generally worsening during the dry season. It also documented concerns that repeated water interruptions were adding to patient waiting lists.

Nurses and Docors report this is a persistent issue that has intensified over many years.

This goes far beyond the impact of Hurricane Melissa in 2025.

It was evidence of an ongoing operational vulnerability in a major public hospital. Read the original report in The Jamaica Gleaner.

Princess Margaret Hospital, St Thomas: resilience requires storage and dependable supply

Princess Margaret Hospital Jamaica faces similar issues along with many parish hostpials and clinics. In May 2025, the Jamaica Information Service reported on plans to improve the hospital’s infrastructure, including a 150,000-gallon water-storage system.

The planned investment is significant because storage is one of the basic protections a hospital needs when its normal water supply is interrupted.

Yet storage is only part of the answer.

Tanks must be replenished, pumps must work, the water must remain safe, and the hospital must have a dependable source when drought or network failures persist.

Read the Jamaica Information Service report on Princess Margaret Hospital’s planned improvements.

Jamaica’s wider warning

In February 2026, Jamaica’s government ordered a water-storage audit covering hospitals, schools and police stations in anticipation of below-normal rainfall.

By October 2026, the Jamaica Information Service reported that 107 National Water Commission water systems were affected by drought conditions, with Kingston, St Andrew and St Thomas among the areas of concern.

These developments reinforce the importance of planning for water disruptions before they reach essential services. They do not mean that every Jamaican public hospital is continuously without running water; rather, they document recurring shortages, infrastructure concerns and the need for stronger resilience.

Read the February 2026 report on the storage audit.
Read the October 2026 Jamaica Information Service report on drought-affected water systems.

The case became even more visible after Hurricane Melissa in 2025. The Jamaica Observer reported that Falmouth Public General Hospital had been without piped water following the hurricane.

Staff carried seawater to flush toilets and clean some floors while the facility dealt with storm damage.

Seawater was an emergency workaround for limited cleaning and flushing uses—not a substitute for treated potable water or the water required for all clinical activities.

Read the Jamaica Observer report on Falmouth Hospital.

The lesson is profound: a hospital can have skilled doctors, modern equipment and dedicated nurses, yet still be vulnerable if the water needed to operate the facility cannot be guaranteed.

Should essential healthcare facilities depend on emergency water trucking when a more resilient supply could be engineered in advance?

That is a question governments, investors, engineers and development-finance institutions should be examining together.

AFRICA FACES A RELATED CHALLENGE

Jamaica’s experience is not unique.

In Africa, water, sanitation and hygiene gaps affect healthcare facilities in countries at different stages of development.

The World Health Organization and UNICEF’s Joint Monitoring Programme reported that, in 2023, approximately 60% of healthcare facilities in sub-Saharan Africa had basic water services.

This regional figure should not be interpreted as meaning that all remaining facilities had no water; some had limited services, while others had none.

The same programme’s country estimates reveal significant gaps.

Country	Healthcare facilities with no water service, 2023
Guinea	68%
Liberia	49%
Mauritania	33%
Democratic Republic of the Congo	30%
Mozambique	27%
Tanzania	18%
Zambia	13%

Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme, 2024 data update. Figures are historical estimates, not current 2026 measurements. “No water service” is a defined service category; it is not the same as intermittent supply.

Read the WHO/UNICEF report.

In Tanzania, UNICEF has also documented water, sanitation and hygiene challenges at Nansama Health Centre in Songwe.

The absence of safe water and functional handwashing facilities posed risks to patients, staff and families, and discouraged some expectant mothers from giving birth at the facility.

Read UNICEF Tanzania’s account.

In Zambia, UNICEF reports that 13% of healthcare facilities lacked any water service in the estimates it cites.

In Malawi, research has linked interruptions in power supply with unreliable water availability and difficulties sterilising medical equipment.

These examples should not be collapsed into one universal diagnosis.

Some facilities need a reliable piped connection; others need functioning boreholes, pumps, treatment, storage or maintenance.

Desalination is not the answer to every inland water shortage.

But the shared requirement is unmistakable: healthcare facilities need water systems designed around the importance of their work, rather than the assumption that a public network will always function.

THE OPPORTUNITY: SOLAR-POWERED DESALINATION

Desalination removes salts and other constituents from seawater or brackish water to produce freshwater. Modern reverse-osmosis systems use membranes and pressure to separate much of the dissolved salt from the water.

When paired with solar electricity, suitable energy storage and efficient operation, desalination can help coastal communities reduce their dependence on rainfall and vulnerable freshwater sources.

It is not a cheap or effortless solution. Desalination requires capital, skilled operation, maintenance, water-quality testing and responsible management of concentrated brine. Seawater systems also require more energy than many conventional freshwater treatment systems. Solar generation can reduce exposure to fuel costs, but it does not remove the need for a sound financial and technical plan.

The most promising projects begin with a clear local need and a reliable customer base.

What the international examples tell us

• South Africa: Cape Town is preparing new water sources, including a proposed 70-million-litre-per-day desalination plant, while Mossel Bay already operates a major seawater desalination plant with a maximum capacity of 15 million litres per day.
• Morocco: water for both people and agriculture

Morocco’s Chtouka–Agadir desalination project was developed to supply drinking water to the Greater Agadir area and support agriculture in the Chtouka region.

 It illustrates how water infrastructure can serve urban needs while helping maintain agricultural production and reducing pressure on depleted groundwater resources.

South Africa: Cape Town is preparing new water sources, including a proposed 70-million-litre-per-day desalination plant, while Mossel Bay already operates a major seawater desalination plant with a maximum capacity of 15 million litres per day.
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• Madagascar: Southern Madagascar faces recurring drought and water scarcity, and World Bank reporting identifies three small desalination plants serving communities as part of a broader water programme.
  UNICEF 
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• Mauritius: In 2025–2026, the government advanced feasibility work for a proposed solar-powered desalination plant of 10,000–50,000 cubic metres per day in the north. In October 2026, water shortages also triggered public protests, underscoring that island water security is an immediate social and economic issue. Mauritius Assembly
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• Cape Verde and Seychelles: Cape Verde is expanding a solar-powered desalination project in Monte Trigo; Seychelles received three containerised desalination plants in September 2026, adding 3,000 cubic metres per day of capacity.
  Governo de Cabo Verde
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These examples let us distinguish projects already operating, projects being developed, and places where further investigation is needed

CARIBBEAN DESALINATION PROJECTS 

Aruba: desalination as essential infrastructure

Aruba has no natural freshwater sources such as rivers or lakes that can meet its drinking-water needs. Its water system therefore relies on desalination. The island demonstrates how desalination can underpin the daily functioning of a highly developed tourism economy and residential population.

Source: Aruba’s official water-production information.

Saint Kitts and Nevis: new capacity at national scale

In February 2026, Saint Kitts and Nevis commissioned the Basseterre desalination plant, designed to produce two million US gallons of potable water per day. The government said the plant would provide water to nearly 70% of the population through the national system and strengthen resilience against shortages and rationing.

The country has also been advancing a smaller, 70,000-gallon-per-day solar-powered desalination plant. These are useful examples of desalination becoming part of a broader national water-security strategy rather than remaining an emergency measure.

Source: Government of Saint Kitts and Nevis.

The broader lesson:

desalination can support communities, agriculture and economic activity when projects are properly sized, financed and connected to distribution systems. But the business case must be tested locally.

 A large municipal plant, a solar-powered island system and a small hospital supply installation have different costs, engineering requirements and revenue structures.

ZANZIBAR: TOURISM, FOOD IMPORTS AND WATER SECURITY

Zanzibar offers a compelling setting in which to explore the connection between water security and economic development.

Zanzibar’s water and energy regulator published an investor guide identifying seawater desalination as an investment opportunity, citing coastal hotels dependent on boreholes and the needs of nearby residents.

This establishes that the concept has been identified for investment, but it does not prove that a large agricultural desalination plant has been approved.

A growing tourism economy creates a second market

Official Zanzibar statistics record 548,503 tourist arrivals in 2022, 638,498 in 2023 and 736,755 in 2024.

That represents an increase of approximately 34% between 2022 and 2024.

Every additional visitor adds demand for accommodation, restaurants, laundry, sanitation, food preparation and other services. The effect varies by property and season, but reliable water is a basic requirement for the tourism economy.

Hotels and resorts may be willing to pay for dependable supply if it reduces their exposure to shortages, expensive tanker deliveries or interruptions to service. The potential customer base extends beyond large hotels to smaller resorts, restaurants, residential developments, institutions and commercial properties.

However, tourism growth alone does not establish that every property has a water shortage or would purchase desalinated water. An investor must establish actual demand, existing supply arrangements and the price customers are prepared to pay.

Food imports: an opportunity to investigate local production

Zanzibar also imports food.

The Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2024 records the following direct import values for the category food and live animals:

Year	Import value
2022	TZS 149.8 billion
2023	TZS 50.6 billion
2024	TZS 194.5 billion

These figures are nominal import values, not a measure of food-import volume alone. 

They fluctuate sharply, and the 2024 figure should not be interpreted as proof that water shortages caused the increase. 

The category also includes a range of products, and changes in prices, quantities, product mix and reporting can affect annual totals.

Nevertheless, the data underline the scale of Zanzibar’s food-trade exposure and the importance of understanding which foods could be produced competitively on the islands.

Source: Zanzibar Statistical Abstract 2024, Office of the Chief Government Statistician.

Tourism has expanded, bringing demand for water to hotels, restaurants, residences and supporting businesses. At the same time, Zanzibar relies on imported food for a significant portion of its consumption. 

Water insecurity can constrain the production of local vegetables, fruit and other crops that might otherwise supply households and hospitality businesses.

The investment case requires detailed local evidence: seasonal water demand, groundwater quality, aquifer sustainability, hotel procurement needs, agricultural production gaps and the delivered cost of water.

Nevertheless, a well-designed project could explore two related markets:

1. Reliable water for households, hotels and essential services. Potential customers could include hotels, commercial facilities, residential developments and public institutions, subject to procurement rules and affordability requirements.
2. Water for productive agriculture. Properly treated water could support selected high-value crops and protected cultivation where the cost per cubic metre is economically justified.

The two markets must not be treated as interchangeable. Drinking water has stringent quality requirements.

 Agricultural water standards depend on crop type, irrigation method, salinity and soil conditions. Desalinated water may also require remineralisation and careful nutrient management for particular agricultural uses.

For Zanzibar, the first step should be a feasibility study that compares desalination with groundwater management, rainwater harvesting, leakage reduction, wastewater reuse and improved storage. The most effective solution may combine several of these approaches.

MAINLAND TANZANIA: FROM WATER ACCESS TO WATER RESILIENCE

On the mainland, coastal and water-stressed areas warrant closer assessment for alternative water supply. 

Separately from Zanzibar-Tanzania’s Water Sector Development Programme Phase III included a target to implement one desalination project by June 2026. 

The target did not explicitly state that the project would supply agricultural irrigation, and its completion status and precise scope require confirmation.

These are meaningful policy and investment signals. They should not, however, be presented as evidence that the government has approved a particular private agricultural desalination concession or committed to purchasing water from a new investor.

Mtwara, Tanga and other coastal locations may offer opportunities where suitable seawater access, demand and distribution infrastructure coincide.

But proximity to the ocean is not enough to justify a desalination plant. 

Investors must establish whether the intended customers have a genuine supply problem, what alternative sources cost, and whether a project can deliver water at an affordable price.

For agricultural development, the calculation must include the entire chain: abstraction, treatment, energy, storage, pumping, distribution, irrigation efficiency and the value of the crop. 

Water that is too expensive for a low-margin staple crop may still be viable for certain high-value crops, tourism facilities or industrial users.

This distinction matters for Tanzania’s ambition to expand agro-processing. 

A processing hub requires water not only for growing ingredients but also for washing, processing, sanitation and cleaning.

 A reliable water supply can therefore support multiple parts of the food value chain.

The investment opportunity is not necessarily one enormous desalination plant. It may be a portfolio of carefully selected projects: a municipal or industrial plant where demand is large, smaller modular systems for isolated coastal communities, and alternative water technologies inland.

A NEW INVESTMENT MODEL: WATER AS A SERVICE

What if private investment could help ensure that a hospital, a group of hotels and nearby farms each had access to reliable water, without requiring every customer to build and operate its own treatment facility?

A potential model would combine:

• A properly assessed water source.
• Solar generation and suitable backup capacity.
• Treatment matched to the source and end use.
• Storage and distribution infrastructure.
• Long-term operating and maintenance contracts.
• Water-quality testing and transparent performance reporting.
• Contracts with institutional customers, subject to public procurement requirements.

For hospitals, the service could be designed around minimum reserve levels, safe water quality, delivery reliability and emergency response times. 

The commercial structure might involve a government service contract, a hospital network, a development-finance partner or a blended-finance arrangement.

Revenue from commercial customers could help support the wider system, but essential medical supply should be protected by contract.

 Hospitals should never be left without water because a higher-paying customer has taken priority.

The project must also be evaluated against the cost of alternatives, including trucked water, storage expansion, network upgrades and groundwater treatment. 

Desalination may be appropriate in some locations and uneconomic in others.

The objective is not to promote a technology before the evidence is in. It is to identify where a dependable water service can deliver measurable public-health and economic value.

THE NEXT MOVE: WATER SECURITY IS FOOD SECURITY

For countries seeking to protect hospitals, strengthen food systems, attract investment and expand local production, reliable water deserves to be treated as essential economic infrastructure.

Jamaica’s experience at Kingston Public Hospital shows how recurring shortages can interfere with surgical services. 

The planned water-storage improvements at Princess Margaret Hospital demonstrate the importance of resilience at the facility level.

 The experience of Falmouth Hospital after Hurricane Melissa shows how quickly water insecurity can become an emergency when infrastructure is damaged.

Across Africa, WHO and UNICEF data reveal substantial gaps in healthcare water services. In agriculture, water insecurity can reduce yields, undermine processing capacity and deepen dependence on imported food. 

For islands, it can also affect tourism, public services and household wellbeing.

Solar-powered desalination is one possible part of the response, particularly in suitable coastal locations. Elsewhere, groundwater treatment, rainwater harvesting, wastewater reuse, improved storage and better-managed distribution may provide more cost-effective solutions.

The challenge for governments, investors and development partners is to move from reactive water trucking and emergency repairs towards systems designed to keep working when rainfall fails, demand rises or disasters strike.

In Jamaica we have a saying: “In the Abundance of Water the Fool is thirsty” 

 Water security is food security. It is also healthcare security, economic security and national resilience.

Let’s be more proactive about water investments and security. 

For investors willing to approach the opportunity with rigorous feasibility studies, responsible engineering and partnerships with public institutions, water infrastructure deserves a place in the conversation about the next generation of essential investments.

My name is Renae Bruce-Miller, I am a professional consultant, Blue Economy investor in African Agro processing based in Dar es Salaam Tanzania.

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